Rafapocalypse?

It's fair to say that the last 12 months for Rafael Nadal have been dismal. A wrist injury, appendicitis, huge confidence issues and defeats to low-ranked players have all raised alarm bells that the 14-time slam champion is in trouble. His ranking has slipped down to number 10, his lowest standing for a decade.

Over the last four years, he's lost early in Wimbledon to players with three-digit rankings. This year, his second round defeat came to Dustin Brown. Why? Firstly, the German's game is incredibly sporadic. His serve is unpredictable, and his play aggressive. The vast majority of his winners were created inside of the court, with quick net play. During the match yesterday, points were kept exceptionally short. The  main issue for Rafa was that he was unable to create any momentum or rhythm, meaning he just didn't have the time to set up winners. Rafa didn't play atrociously, against a player with a game which is a nightmare for him, he did a good job. Brown played the match of his life. A combination of a fantastic player, Rafa's worst surface, major confidence issues and predictability led to the loss. It's not a shock. An upset, yes, but definitely not a shock. When you delve into the logistics of the match yesterday, it's not difficult to see why Rafa didn't come out with a victory.

I don't think anybody predicted Rafa winning Wimbledon, but as a fan, part of what I do is trust him and believe he can win every tournament he enters. It's always hard when he suffers a loss, especially one so early in such a special tournament like Wimbledon. Personally, I took it really hard as I was at Wimbledon when he lost. It was my first time, and now it's hard to think of my day without that bad memory looming over me.

In terms of the future, I don't think this loss has much to do with it. It's hugely disappointing for Rafa and understandably, he's sad, but in the long term I think he'll use it as motivation. It's not the end yet. I know that for sure. His career continues, this is just another setback. At the end of the day, it doesn't tell us anything that we already don't know. Rafa is struggling mentally and is not able to compete in the way he used to.

The road back to his best may never be complete, and that's something we have to come to terms with. We're no longer waiting for the old Rafa to come back, we are experiencing a new Rafa. I don't believe Rafa will ever be like he was, mentally invincible and able to beat anybody. That's okay, though. There comes a time when every player reaches the point where the best is behind them. This year, I believe we've hit that point, whether we like it or not.

Having said that, I strongly believe that he will improve and play at a great level again. Not a level that wins ten tournaments in a year, but a level that is solid and dependable. The first step to that happening is a full season. Consistency is key, and if Rafa can play the season from start to finish with no injuries, we're well on our way to achieving that.

Media are treating the loss as a disaster, which I think is just incredibly over-dramatic. There are 128 players in the draw, 127 of them have to lose. It's sport. Yes, it was to a low ranked player in an early round, but that doesn't tell the full story. Dustin played well and Rafa didn't. It happens.

Rafa's team have come under harsh criticism, especially Toni, as many urge him to get a new coach. Perhaps that would work in the long term, but I think that the trauma of removing his uncle from his team, one that have been together from the start, would cause more harm than a fresh face would do good. Ultimately, there's one player on that court, so losses are down to the player, and him only. No coach can repair Rafa's mental issues, that's a job for a psychologist, or alternatively, a solution is to be patient.

The only thing we can do now is accept the situation and try our best to adapt. It's not been an easy year and it's unlikely to miraculously get better, either. We have to remember that this is way harder for Rafa than it is for us. Our job now is to enjoy the roller coaster as best as we can because we never know when it's going to end.